2016 was a year of surprises. The Federal Reserve (Fed) backtracked on its outlook on interest rate hikes, Britain voted to leave the European Union, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resigned after a resounding defeat in the Italian referendum, and Donald Trump triumphed over Hillary Clinton to become the 45th US President. Commodities rallied, owing partly to low base effects and reflationary expectations following Trump’s win. Against such a backdrop, risk-free rates had a volatile run, with the US Treasury (UST) yield curve shifting higher in the year.
USTs weakened further in December, as caution prevailed following the November sell-off. As widely expected, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). 10-year UST yields ended the month at 2.44%, about 6 basis points (bps) higher compared to end-November levels.
2016 was a year of surprises. The Federal Reserve (Fed) backtracked on its outlook on interest rate hikes, Britain voted to leave the European Union, Donald Trump triumphed over Hillary Clinton to become the 45th US President, and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resigned after a resounding defeat in the Italian referendum.
We are currently in a position where we are facing more questions than answers regarding Trump's policy stance as he comes into office and how it will affect the market.
UST yields surged in the month as Trump's election victory prompted expectations of a significant fiscal package and possible upside inflation risk under the new administration.
October was another difficult month for Global credit markets, in particular for Investment Grade bonds. By contrast, more risky High Yield bonds outperformed. In terms of sector results, financial issuers outperformed.
USTs ended lower in October. Better US economic data and a hawkish statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) bolstered expectations of a December interest rate hike. 10-year UST yields rose about 23 basis points (bps) to 1.83%.
USTs ended September mixed. While the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and the Bank of Japan reinforced commitment to monetary easing, the ECB's lack of new stimulus disappointed the market.
Central bank policy from the US, Japan and Europe are strongly affecting the current global fixed income markets. New Zealand and Canadian economies also face continued pressure. We maintain the view that there is a positive environment for emerging markets, but have moved slightly more cautious.
On the back of expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates on hold in the next months, the global search for yield is likely to support demand for Indian, Malaysian and Indonesian bonds.