Our Nikko Asset Management fixed income experts, led by Simon Down, discuss the prospects for commodity currencies.
US Treasury (UST) yield curve, along with other asset classes, experienced volatile swings in August. The Chinese central bank’s announcement that it would modify the approach to setting the CNY fixing midpoint effectively weakened the currency against the USD.
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The internet revolution is coming to the financial sector, addressing inefficiencies in current system and business models. In China’s case we are witnessing a combination of financial liberalisation with an internet revolution in the financial sector.
Even though the current term premium on US Treasuries seems too low, it is unlikely to rise significantly unless offshore bond yields start to rise.
While RMB weakness will likely persist for a few months, we don't expect the currency to devalue more than 10% versus USD and we maintain our confidence that the currency will be included into the IMF SDR basket in a year from now.
US Treasury (UST) yield curve bull flattened in July, as yields of short-dated USTs rose on Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairperson Janet Yellen’s statement that interest rates are likely to rise later this year while the yields of longer-dated USTs fell on the weakening inflation outlook.
Spreads in Asian corporate high yields (HYs) have been impacted by recent market volatilities. Risk aversion ruled the market after the surprise change in RMB fixing rule which led to concerns on the weakening growth in China and its impact on the emerging markets (EM) countries.
After the China devaluation, Asia currencies and equities broke down – in effect, catching down to some degree to Latin America, Europe, Middle East and Africa, which had already been significant underperformers.
Yields of US Treasuries (USTs) bear steepened in June, with developments in Europe dominating sentiment. The 10-year Treasury eventually ended the month at 2.35%, 23 basis points (bps) higher compared to end May levels.
The sharp equity market correction in recent weeks after a very strong run over the past year will not have a crisis-level impact to the broader economy.
The IMF has been supportive of China's attempt to be included, but has not indicated that it recommends it. Furthermore, there is a risk that most of these reforms are too new for the IMF to judge whether they are effective or sustainable.
Nikko AM Asia views the recent market corrections in Chinese equities, particularly in the onshore markets, as healthy given the sharp advance on account of a frenzied retail market intoxicated by the relatively cheap margin financing.
Although the recent bond market sell-off may remind the market of 2003, we don’t believe US bonds will be as badly affected. By comparing the worst US bond sell-offs since 2003, we estimate that the 10-year US Treasury yield could hit a high of 2.8-3.2% by October.
Yields of US Treasuries (USTs) rallied in May, with the 2-year and 10-year yields up 4 and 9 basis points (bps) respectively as compared to end-April levels.
Notwithstanding a brief rebound in yen strength in mid-June, the Japanese currency has continued its weakening trend against the U.S. dollar, with the yen recently dropping to its lowest level in over 12 years.
Real yields and inflation expectations currently suggest exceptionally low growth and low inflation far out into the future.
We do not expect the recent steepening of the bund yield curve to be the beginning of a sustained new trend. Moreover, Eurozone and German economic data, albeit improving, are not sufficient to support the higher bund yields on a sustained basis.
Since the Fed starting hinting at the normalization of interest rates a year ago, Asian central banks' foreign reserve accumulations - except for India and Hong Kong - have either incurred substantial losses or remained flat.
With many markets having rallied from major support levels when they were in highly oversold positions, we believe that bond markets should stabilise or rally from current levels.