Fixed Income

 



April 2018

Global Fixed Income & Credit Outlook

The broad-based synchronized growth story continued to soften through March, as consumers pared back purchases in the face of rising prices.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook

In the near-term, we foresee US Treasury moves influencing the direction of regional bonds.


March 2018

Global Fixed Income & Credit Outlook

A broad-based synchronized recovery continues to gain traction. Following the strongest year of global growth since 2010 (estimated at 3%) the consensus forecast for the current year looks to be even rosier.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook

In the near-term, we foresee flows into Indonesian bonds to be supported by the inclusion of IDR-denominated bonds into the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index.


February 2018

Global Fixed Income & Credit Outlook

A broad-based synchronized recovery continues to gain traction. Following the strongest year of global growth since 2010 (estimated at 3%) the consensus forecast for the current year looks to be even rosier.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook

There was a sharp rise in US Treasury yields in January on the back of positive macro news, steady rise in oil prices and speculation that central banks in developed markets will start winding back on stimulus measures.


January 2018

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook

As widely expected, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by 25bps in December, its third rate hike this year. It also raised its GDP forecast for 2018.

2018 Global Credit Outlook

We see the key investment themes to drive performance in Global Credit in 2018 to be similar to last year. Using the output of our initial market assessment, we have developed our investment themes: Long US High Yield, Long Chinese Tier1 SOEs, Long European Hybrids, Long European Financials, Long Rising Stars.

2018 Developed Markets Outlook

For 2018 and beyond, we see a story of central bank policy normalization and foresee the global economy growing in a similar fashion to how it did in 2017: low growth coupled with comparatively low inflation data.


December 2017

2018 Asian Credit Outlook

We expect the economic backdrop for Asian credits to remain constructive in 2018, but remain cognizant of several risks including rising interest rates, robust supply, unexpected weakness in China, geopolitical developments and cross-asset volatility.

2018 Asian Rates and FX Outlook

The global recovery is expected to continue, albeit at a more moderate pace. Meanwhile, we see policy normalisation and an acceleration of inflation in Asia. Political action will move to South Asia in the wake of upcoming elections there.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook

US Treasury (UST) yields declined during the month. The nomination of Jerome Powell as the next US Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman overshadowed stronger US economic data, but was subsequently offset by increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a setback to US tax reform.


November 2017

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook

US Treasuries (USTs) fell in October, as prospects of higher growth and inflation increased after the US Senate approved the Republican-backed budget for 2018.


October 2017

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook

US Treasuries declined in September, prompted by the possibility of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December and Trump's tax reform bill being passed by Congress.


September 2017

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook

The US Treasury (UST) market grinded higher in August. Rising tensions in the Korean peninsula and a lack of direction from the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank on the outlook for monetary policy put pressure on US Treasury yields.


August 2017

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook

US Treasury (UST) yields ended largely unchanged in July following soft US inflation print, dovish comments from the Federal Reserve and expectations of an autumn policy shift from the European Central Bank. Overall, 10-year UST yields ended the month at 2.30%, about 0.9 basis points (bps) lower compared to the previous month.


July 2017

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook

US Treasury (UST) yields were range-bound for the most part of June, before surging in the last few days of the month. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), despite soft inflation data. Overall, 10-year UST yields ended the month at 2.30%, about 10 bps higher compared to the previous month.


June 2017

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook

Better-than-expected US non-farm payroll figures and a more favourable FOMC statement were offset by political uncertainties in Washington. FBI director James Comey's firing and investigations into possible ties between Trump's election campaign and Russia increased concerns of a set-back in the president's economic agenda. 10-year UST yields ended the month at 2.20%, about 8 basis points (bps) lower compared to end-April levels.

Asia High Grade Credit

Asia Credit is significant enough as an asset class to be considered separately, and its high grade segment could be a relative safe haven if EMD flows reverse.


May 2017

Asian Fixed Income Note: Comments on Moody’s downgrade of China’s credit ratings

On 24 May 2017, Moody’s downgraded China’s sovereign credit rating to A1 from Aa3 citing expectations that China’s “financial strength will erode somewhat over the coming years, with economy-wide debt continuing to rise as potential growth slows”. The rating agency has placed the outlook for the rating at negative since March 2016.

Asian Fixed Income Note: Indonesia's Investment Grade rating upgrade by S&P

On 19 May 2017, S&P upgraded Indonesia’ sovereign rating to BBB- with a stable outlook from BB+ with a positive outlook. In the longer term, the market is expecting that this rating upgrade will result in inflows of as much as USD 5bn into the bond market, particularly from Japanese investors who require a full investment grade rating from the three rating agencies.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook

10-year US Treasury (UST) yields ended the month at 2.28%, about 11 basis points (bps) lower compared to end-March levels. Mixed economic data and rising geopolitical tensions drove sentiment over the month. Towards the month-end, market sentiment improved after pro-euro French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron secured the most number of votes in the first round of elections.


April 2017

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook

US Treasury (UST) yields rose in the first half of the month buoyed by hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed), a solid US jobs report and possible scale back of quantitative easing (QE) by the European Central Bank (ECB). While the Fed raised short-term interest rates, as expected, the absence of a more hawkish tone from the central bank triggered a drop in UST yields.