The major consideration for markets in June was the Brexit vote in the UK. Although we are sceptical about the most pessimistic scenarios for the UK, there will be some negative impact on growth.
We expect the impact of Britain’s exit from the EU on Asia’s economic activity to be relatively muted, as the region has comparatively low trade links with the UK. Plus updates on US Treasuries, Singapore, India, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, and others.
The immediate fallout from the Brexit win has been a strong flight to safety.
US Treasury yields remained largely unchanged in May. The impact of a disappointing US payroll figure was offset by the release of the US Federal Reserve’s April meeting minutes, which revealed that most policymakers favoured a rate hike in June should the US economy continue to improve.
Continued easy monetary policy in Europe and Japan will be supportive for global interest rates, but the case for further limited rate hikes in the US remains in place for 2016.
Yields of USTs climbed steadily for the most part in the month. Hopes of stabilization in the Chinese economy, due to recent economic numbers printing better than expected, underpinned demand for riskier assets.
US Treasuries ended mostly higher in March, while risk assets rallied. Although US labour data mitigated fears of a recession, the Federal Reserve now expects to raise interest rates twice this year.
Oil prices were at the forefront of investor attention in February. Risk assets started the month on weak footing, weighed down by stumbling oil prices and worries about teh health of European banks.
In 2015, the US Federal Reserve began the process of interest rate normalisation. Short-term bonds underperformed long duration bonds, on expectations of the ongoing US economic recovery remaining weak, and US inflation being anchored at current low levels.
US Treasuries registered gains in January. Global investors again focused on China at the start of the period, as successive weaker USDCNY fixings.
The current depreciation trend of the RMB against USD should be seen as a broad-based depreciation of the RMB and not bilaterally to the USD. The trend started from the second week of November 205 and it is clear that the move was planned well ahead.
2015 has been a tumultuous year with a plethora of risk events spurring significant volatility across most asset classes. Against this background, Asia USD credit delivered a modest return compared to 2014, but still a decent one when compared to other asset classes.
USTs ended lower in December, trading in a relatively tight range over the period. The US Fed began the process of interest rate normalisation.