We only expect mild further easing ahead, especially as the ECB does not wish to cause a rupture while the Fed is hiking rates.
We forecast that Asia Pac ex Japan, Japan and Europe will outperform in the next six months, while the US should underperform and, thus, deserve an underweight stance vs. all other regions.
Our investment management teams have again come together to update their views given new developments in India.
US Treasuries (USTs) yields ended the month higher. October non-farm payrolls indicated a surge in job growth, keeping the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on course for a possible rate hike in December.
The MSCI Asia ex Japan Index fell 3.4% in USD terms, underperforming MSCI AC World Index. Malaysia, being the only net commodity exporting country within the Asia ex Japan region, was the only market which proved positive returns (in USD terms) in November, aided by strong currency.
Looking forward, even though inventories were revised higher, their long depletion means they remain far too low in my view, and should continue start to rise significantly in the quarters and years ahead.
As we enter 2016, we believe the divergent monetary policy theme will continue -- with the major risk to global bond markets and Fed rate rises continuing to be Europe.
A framework agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership was reached in October 2015, and the governments of participant countries are working to ratify the agreement and formally launch the partnership.
With the aim of significantly liberalizing trade within the Asia-Pacific region, and thereby boosting trade and investment among the region's countries, a framework agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was reached in 2015.
Inbound consumption by overseas visitors to Japan continues to grow. For the nine-month period from January to September 2015, such consumption totalled a cumulative ¥2.6 trillion (approx. US$21.7 billion), which already represents a higher amount than that for all of 2014.
The IMF's decision to include the Renminbi into the SDR is a major push for the RMB to become one of the world's major reserve currencies.
Our lead Australian fixed income portfolio manager discusses her intermediate-term outlook for the bond market “down under.”
Once again, as has long been our view, disappointing macro-data should not worry investors in Japanese risk assets very much at all.
Prices of the US Treasuries (USTs) ended the month lower. Risk-on sentiment prevailed for the most part of October, favouring risk assets over perceived "safe-haven" instruments.
The MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index rose 8.0% in USD terms, broadly in line with MSCI AC World Index. All Asia ex Japan currencies except the Philippine Peso strengthened against the US dollar in October.
Developed and emerging markets in Asia ex-Japan have clearly been under tremendous pressure in recent months, including redemptions of more than USD 50bn from the region in September, the heaviest ever witnessed.
We update our views on whether ECB QE has had a positive effect on corporate earnings.
There are many reasons for the BOJ to defy consensus expectations for more easing.
US Treasuries (USTs) registered gains in September. Yields initially trade in a tight range, but subsequently jumped mid-month, in anticipation of the announcement from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
The MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index was down 1.8% in USD terms in September which masked the volatility where the markets oscillated within a wide range of 10%.
There is an admirable effort to improve the female participation rate, but it is too early to judge whether the measures will have a major effect.
A better supply/demand balance in Europe, outperformance of “high yield“ globally, positive event-risk in the telecom sector and opportunities in local currencies, as well as other credit related investment themes, all present interesting opportunities for generating positive returns, even in a challenging environment.
Our Nikko Asset Management fixed income experts, led by Simon Down, discuss the prospects for commodity currencies.
In our view, the G-3 economies will fare reasonably well, and basically match the current consensus in the next few quarters; however, there will be significant challenges for each region.
For the time being, we are not estimating a date for reducing the Fed’s balance sheet, but a 2Q16 initiation seems quite logical at this stage.