Evolving Markets

Investment Insights by our experts and thought leaders

Japan’s “Show Me the Money” Corporate Governance: 3Q update

Given the release of the third quarter data, we update our decade-long theme about improving corporate governance in Japan.

Global Emerging Markets: Possible Impacts from a Trump Presidency

Following Trump’s election, our Emerging Market team in London, supported by John Vail, our Global Chief Strategist, discuss what, at this early stage, we can potentially expect to see from the US regarding its relationship with Emerging Market economies.

Global Oil: November Could Be Critical

Our oil experts in the US and London analyze the Saudi oil conundrum.

Asian Markets in the Wake of Trump’s Triumph

Our Senior Portfolio Manager for Asian equities reflects on Asian markets in the wake of Trump’s Triumph.

Trump Win: Surprise, but Not an Accident

Neither Brexit nor Trump’s win was an accident – ‘the people’, in particular the working and middle classes, are purposefully and deliberately giving the political elites a thump on the nose.

Political Revolution Hits America

Much like the BREXIT result, Americans surprised the consensus with an anti-establishment vote.

Populism and Strongman Rule - Is Duterte a role model for ASEAN?

Our Senior Portfolio Manager for ASEAN equities reviews the trend towards Strongman rule in ASEAN.

What Challenges Lie Ahead for the Healthcare Sector?

Advances in science and technology are continuously changing and progressing the medical profession and broader healthcare industry. While the industry growth will be strong, not all participants will fare equally.

Earnings recovery is much more achievable in EM Asia than LatAm or EMEA

Our Multi-Asset portfolio manager based in Singapore reviews the prospects for profit margin expansion in the three main Emerging Market regions.

Emerging markets (EM) have endured strong adjustments in commodities and currencies that coupled with reforms makes a good case for better growth ahead.

It has continued to be a wild roller-coaster ride for investors, and unfortunately, it is not likely to be very calm for the foreseeable future. Investors must keep a keen eye on geopolitical risk and be ready to act if such appear to accelerate into a situation that could significantly impact markets.

Interpreting Signals in Unprecedented Times - Japan Equity Market Outlook

No turning back — 2% inflation target not only intact but enhanced with a new “inflation overshooting commitment”

'Peak oil' to 'Peak demand': Implications for global investors

Although it is tempting to join the ‘peak demand’ bandwagon, as investors it is important to understand the impact that different technologies (and their timing) have on energy prices.

Will Japan Exit the UK?

Our UK expert on BREXIT and our chief global strategist respond to Japan’s concern about its investments in the UK.

Only central banks can break the cycle of ever-declining bond yields

QE policies have had a material impact on bond yields and valuations. We believe that the evolution of these policies will be more important than fundamentals in indicating when bonds can break the cycle of ever-declining yields.

More Radical Central Bank Policies and Implications for Stock Picking

Given how important central bank policies are for the pricing of assets, our focus has to be on what they do next. If debt monetisation were to occur, it would have significant implications for equity investing.

Electric Vehicles: Are they disruptive?

In our view, electric vehicles will have significant implications (both positive and negative) for many sectors, particularly automotive and oil, presenting investors with interesting opportunities, particularly in Asia.

Why it matters: Nigeria's Global Oil Impact

Oil production in Nigeria has been severely hampered in recent months as local militant group, the Niger Delta Avengers, have committed numerous attacks on oil pipelines in the region, materially lowering the country’s oil production. Our Emerging Market (EM) debt team in London take a closer look the political situation in Nigeria, the origins of the conflict, prospects for its potential resolution and its impact on global oil prices.

Is this the end of the 35-year bond rally?

Many market commentators have been speculating that we are finally coming to the end of the bond rally that has endured for the past 35 years. It's worth noting that this is nothing new—we have heard similar suggestions many times before over recent years.

Japan’s “Show Me the Money” Corporate Governance

Given the release of the second quarter data, we update our decade-long theme about improving corporate governance in Japan.

Hitting the Mark: Can Third Arrow Reforms Benefit Investors?

Japan is a consensus-driven culture and improved corporate governance is now the consensus. There are clear signs that many companies are moving towards more shareholder-oriented management.

India – Modi Magic, the GST Game Changer

The CEO of our Indian joint venture and our senior EM portfolio manager in London analyze the great importance of recent legislative developments in India.

Fintech – Disruptor or Saviour?

Our expert on Asian financials describes the exciting technological developments that will change the way we all do business in the future.

Erdogan Hammers the Parallel State

Our expert on Turkey details his cautious stance on Turkey's near-term future.

Japan's Election: Abe's Continued Focus on the Economy

Our Chief Strategist in Japan shares his views on political landscape and the economy.

Attraction of Emerging Market Debt

Emerging Market reforms won't stop or pause with the current market recovery.

What does Brexit mean for Emerging Markets?

Following our analysis of the recent UK vote, our Emerging Market debt team in London discusses Brexit's potential ramifications for this asset class.

BREXIT, BREXIT! Where’s The Exit?

Two of our senior portfolio managers in London update their earlier pieces on what lies ahead for what should be a long-drawn out BREXIT path.

Slowdown but No Global Recession, with EU Cohesion, but Struggling UK

Nikko Asset Management's Global Investment Committee’s post-BREXIT scenario, including market and economic targets, is on the moderately gloomy side.

Brexit: Outlook for Global Fixed Income & Credit

Uncertainty after Brexit vote, but the correction in valuations and market volatility could provide buying opportunities in some fundamentally strong credits.

Brexit: Where to now for markets?

Although it is still too early to determine the full implications of Brexit over the longer term, in the short term, we can expect significant market volatility as uncertainty prevails, but this does not mean that investors should panic.

Brexit: In or Out? The Final Run In.

Two of our senior portfolio managers in London update their earlier piece on BREXIT with numerous points of great interest on this crucial topic.

Global Oil Update: Continuing positive outlook or flash in the pan?

Our oil experts in London and New York update their bullish views in January with new facts, while retaining their positive intermediate-term view on oil prices.

Liquidity Fears May Prompt a Market Rethink

We believe it is time to reassess market attitudes towards liquidity. We may have to start moving towards a model where investment horizons and liquidity expectations are more appropriately matched to the asset classes being invested in.

EU Refugee Crisis: European Weak Points and Outlook

Our London-based portfolio manager, Simon Down, and his colleagues review the refugee crisis that is turning European politics into a "hornets' nest."

Emerging Markets: Are we there yet?

Our two leading Global Emerging Market debt experts, both based in London, weigh the possibilities of a sustained upturn in this long-suffering asset class.

Abenomics is Alive and Well

Our Chief Global Strategist explains the reasons why there is too much unjustified pessimism about Abenomics.

The Subtle Shift in Asian Currencies from the Dollar to the Renminbi

Our Asian currency expert discusses the potential ramifications of the increasing CNY-orientation for Asian currencies.

Which Matters More for Credit Spreads: Fundamentals or QE?

What is more important for credit spreads in the current environment: the fundamentals or central bank actions? Our research suggests that since 2010 the answer has been central banks and, in particular, the US Federal Reserve.

Trends in Global Advertising: Mobile Still Underappreciated

The global advertising industry is undergoing a rapid transition. Advertisers are currently under-allocating to mobile advertising, and there are some companies that are well placed to take advantage of this trend.

Is Now the Time to Invest in Brazil?

Since 2011, Brazilian assets have re-priced to the downside. Given the size of the adjustment – both in commodities and assets – the question is whether Brazil is now presenting attractive investment opportunities.

G-3 and Chinese Economies Moderately Firmer in 2016

Nikko Asset Management's Global Investment Committee met on March 29th and updated our intermediate-term house view on the global economic backdrop, central bank policies, financial markets and investment strategy advice.

Fed in June and December, but ECB or BOJ Slight Easing

We expect June and December Fed hikes, but only mild further easing ahead for the BOJ and ECB. Meanwhile, we expect oil prices to creep higher through 2016 despite the stronger USD due to relatively firm economic developments in China and the G-3.

We expect that global equity and bond investing will be positive for Yen based investors due to Yen weakness, but for USD based investors, we are taking only a neutral stance on global equities due to a cautious forecast for US equities, whereas we are positive on Asia-Pac ex Japan, Japan and Europe. Meanwhile, we are moderately negative on bonds in each region when measured in USD terms, so we underweight them.

ASEAN: Reversal of Fortunes?

Our Singapore-based Fixed Income Portfolio Manager details the reasons for ASEAN’s recent rebound and why such should continue.

Scones or Croissants? Brexit: The Route to Exit and Key Risks

Although the current polls do not indicate a clear majority outcome, in this piece we will examine some of the issues that may cause sentiment to shift towards a Brexit, and what the UK leaving the European Union might mean for the UK and EU economies post breakup.

Is it time to get back into credit?

While a recession in the US is not our base scenario, the impact of such an event on credit exposure is worthy of consideration. In our historical analysis we've found that the driver of past recessions can provide important insight into which credit maturities are most attractive.

Globalisation has reduced US monetary policy independence

US monetary policy grows less independent as 2016 unfolds and risks to global growth abound in a rebalancing China, a deflationary struggle in Europe and whispers of a Brexit.

Japan's "Show Me the Money" Corporate Governance - March 2016

Our global strategist sheds light on how corporate profit margins are reflecting the continuing improvement of corporate governance in Japan.

Our Global Credit Strategy: Seeking Services

Our Global Credit staff in London detail their rationale behind concentrating on service sector exposure globally.