Fixed Income

Investment Insights by our experts and thought leaders

Which Matters More for Credit Spreads: Fundamentals or QE?

What is more important for credit spreads in the current environment: the fundamentals or central bank actions? Our research suggests that since 2010 the answer has been central banks and, in particular, the US Federal Reserve.

Global Credit Outlook

For the next 12 months, we are quite positive on performance prospect for global credit, singling out five investment themes.

G-3 and Chinese Economies Moderately Firmer in 2016

Nikko Asset Management's Global Investment Committee met on March 29th and updated our intermediate-term house view on the global economic backdrop, central bank policies, financial markets and investment strategy advice.

Fed in June and December, but ECB or BOJ Slight Easing

We expect June and December Fed hikes, but only mild further easing ahead for the BOJ and ECB. Meanwhile, we expect oil prices to creep higher through 2016 despite the stronger USD due to relatively firm economic developments in China and the G-3.

We expect that global equity and bond investing will be positive for Yen based investors due to Yen weakness, but for USD based investors, we are taking only a neutral stance on global equities due to a cautious forecast for US equities, whereas we are positive on Asia-Pac ex Japan, Japan and Europe. Meanwhile, we are moderately negative on bonds in each region when measured in USD terms, so we underweight them.

Is it time to get back into credit?

While a recession in the US is not our base scenario, the impact of such an event on credit exposure is worthy of consideration. In our historical analysis we've found that the driver of past recessions can provide important insight into which credit maturities are most attractive.

Globalisation has reduced US monetary policy independence

US monetary policy grows less independent as 2016 unfolds and risks to global growth abound in a rebalancing China, a deflationary struggle in Europe and whispers of a Brexit.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - March 2016

5-year and 10-year US Treasuries (USTs) yields ended the month lower, at 1.21% and 1.74% respectively. Cautious sentiment around falling oil prices and the prospect of a delay in US Federal Reserve interest rate increases supported US Treasuries (USTs) over the month.

Our Global Credit Strategy: Seeking Services

Our Global Credit staff in London detail their rationale behind concentrating on service sector exposure globally.

Asian Local Government Bond Outlook 2016

In 2015, the US Federal Reserve began the process of interest rate normalisation. Short-term bonds underperformed long duration bonds, on expectations of the ongoing US economic recovery remaining weak, and US inflation being anchored at current low levels.

Renminbi: A one-off devaluation or free float in 2016?

As we have seen over the past year in the equity market, the more Beijing wants to exert control, the more it slips away. Is pragmatism going to trump ideology in Beijing? In the current environment, the PBOC letting the RMB free float might not be so unbelievable after all.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - February 2016

2-year and 10-year US Treasuries (USTs) yields ended the month lower, at 0.78% and 1.92%. Concerns that China could be embarking on a devaluation path curbed investors' risk appetite and supported demand safe-haven assets.

It's All About the Dollar

In our view, the USD will soften when the Fed comes to accept the reality of slow-to-no growth globally and becomes more dovish in its language and approach.

The BOJ's Bold Move is Not a Shot in a Currency War

Unfortunately for the soundness of the sleep among BOJ-watchers, Mr. Kuroda believes that surprising the market is the best way to achieve his intended result.

Is Saudi Arabia Finally Winning the Global Oil War?

Our London and US analysts review oil prices from the supply and demand angle and they note that global demand growth remains high while global supply is narrowing, indicating that oilfs price swoon could be over.

What is the Outlook for the Yuan?

Our Singapore fixed income team expounds on the outlook for this clearly globally important factor.

Asian Credit Outlook 2016

2015 has been a tumultuous year with a plethora of risk events spurring significant volatility across most asset classes.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - January 2016

2-year and 10-year US Treasuries (USTs) yields ended 2015 higher at 1.05% and 2.27%. These come after the US central bank raised ist interest rates and pledged a gradual pace of increases.

The Fed was even more Dovish than Apparent in the Headlines

John Vail reflects on the Fed decision and the path forward. The Fed was even more dovish than apparent in the headlines.

US & China Economies Sturdy in 2016; So-So for EZ and Japan

Nikko Asset Management's Global Investment Committee met on December 8th and updated our intermediate-term house view on the global economic backdrop, central bank policies, financial markets and investment strategy advice.