Fixed Income

Investment Insights by our experts and thought leaders

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - June 2018

In May, US Treasury (UST) yields ended lower. A solid US jobs report supported the bearish bias in UST yields that prevailed.

Happy Birthday ECB

The ECB recently celebrated its 20-year anniversary and instead of a birthday cake, DB research released a compelling chart about how different asset classes have performed over this time period.

House View: Global Economic Rebound And Equity Reflation

Despite uninspiring global equity performance in the last three months, at least for USD-based investors, Nikko AM’s Global Investment Committee continues to be positive on global equities on a one-year view, particularly those in Japan, Europe and the Asia Pacific, but remain unenthusiastic on global bonds.

Global Fixed Income & Credit Outlook - June 2018

Global growth is becoming increasingly less synchronized, with the Eurozone, Japan and UK showing some moderation in growth, whilst the US remains relatively robust.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - May 2018

US Treasuries (USTs) experienced a sharp sell-off in April as yields rose about 10 to 24 basis points (bps) across the curve. Trade war fears between US and China receded, with Chinese President Xi Jinping's commitment to further open up the economy to foreign businesses.

Global Fixed Income & Credit Outlook - April 2018

The broad-based synchronized growth story continued to soften through March, as consumers pared back purchases in the face of rising prices.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - April 2018

US Treasuries (USTs) traded in relatively tight range in March, with the yield curve bull flattening. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interate rates by 25 basis points (bps), and signalled it could lift rates at a marginally more aggressive pace in coming years.

Global Ramifications of the Eurozone’s Huge Trade Surplus

Many economists and currency analysts, after years of ignoring such “old fashioned” indicators, are now talking about the massive trade surplus that the Eurozone enjoys with the world, but in particular with the US.

LatAm Elections: The Lure of the Left

Our London-based Emerging Market fixed income analyst predicts increased volatility ahead for Latin American markets due to the threat of Leftist election victories this year, but that pro-market reforms will still progress.

House View: Continued Global Economic and Equity Reflation

Our updated view remains positive on the global economy and equity markets even as global bond yields rise a bit further. Our SPX target remains near 3000 by year end, with impressive gains elsewhere too.

Global Fixed Income & Credit Outlook - March 2018

A broad-based synchronized recovery continues to gain traction. Following the strongest year of global growth since 2010 (estimated at 3%) the consensus forecast for the current year looks to be even rosier.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - March 2018

In February, US Treasuries (USTs) succumbed to a further sell-off, with yields rising across the curve prompted by better US economic data.

Italian Elections: More of the Same Political Dysfunction

Poor economic and fiscal policies are, and will likely be, a recurring theme in Italian politics. However, from a trade perspective, we see Italy to remain a good carry/spread trade for at least the next twelve months against a backdrop of improving GDP growth in 2018 and 2019.

Global Fixed Income & Credit Outlook - February 2018

A broad-based synchronized recovery continues to gain traction. Following the strongest year of global growth since 2010 (estimated at 3%) the consensus forecast for the current year looks to be even rosier.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - February 2018

There was a sharp rise in US Treasury (UST) yields in January on the back of positive macro news, steady rise in oil prices and speculation that central banks in developed markets will start winding back on stimulus measures.

Australian Household Debt — The Economic Cost of High House Prices

Over the past 15 years Australian house prices have been on an incredible run, resulting in Australian households becoming some of the most indebted in the world. So what is the economic cost of Australia’s sky high property prices and what could it mean for property prices in 2018?

Global Fixed Income & Credit Outlook - January 2018

A broad-based synchronised recovery continues to gain traction. Following the strongest year of global growth since 2010 (estimated at 3%) the consensus forecast for the current year looks to be even rosier.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - January 2018

As widely expected, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by 25bps in December, its third rate hike this year. It also raised its GDP forecast for 2018.

2018 Emerging Markets Outlook

Our Senior Portfolio Manager for Emerging Markets in London forecasts that in 2018, this asset class could well match 2017’s achievement.

2018 Developed Markets Outlook

For 2018 and beyond, we see a story of central bank policy normalization and foresee the global economy growing in a similar fashion to how it did in 2017: low growth coupled with comparatively low inflation data.