A better supply/demand balance in Europe, outperformance of “high yield“ globally, positive event-risk in the telecom sector and opportunities in local currencies, as well as other credit related investment themes, all present interesting opportunities for generating positive returns, even in a challenging environment.
Our Nikko Asset Management fixed income experts, led by Simon Down, discuss the prospects for commodity currencies.
In our view, the G-3 economies will fare reasonably well, and basically match the current consensus in the next few quarters; however, there will be significant challenges for each region.
For the time being, we are not estimating a date for reducing the Fed’s balance sheet, but a 2Q16 initiation seems quite logical at this stage.
Although we expected G-3 bond yields to rise, they did so less than we predicted in our June meeting. We expect yields to rise moderately further for the next two quarters.
Our forecasted macro-backdrop scenario has mixed ramifications for global equities, with the US declining but most other regions rising, and it is likely to be very volatile ride
Markets and economies are still being dictated to by unprecedented levels of monetary stimulus. We believe in building a portfolio of companies that are more likely to flourish in the growth environment beyond 2015.
US Treasury (UST) yield curve, along with other asset classes, experienced volatile swings in August. The Chinese central bank’s announcement that it would modify the approach to setting the CNY fixing midpoint effectively weakened the currency against the USD.
Asian equities fell 9.8%, underperforming the MSCI AC World Index by 3.2%, in USD terms. This marked the worst monthly performance for MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index since May 2012.
Looking at how Japanese companies fared with their April-June quarterly earnings, we can see that automobile manufacturers and major electronics producers posted large profit growth on the back of the weak yen and strong sales in the North American market.