Now that oil prices have declined, if a central bank targets its overall CPI at 2.0% for 2015, it would likely be labeled as being overly aggressive and perhaps attempting to unfairly weaken its currency.
As the Fed continues to unwind its stimulus, even amidst threats of global deflation, there are hopes that China will accelerate the liberalization of its capital account and take over the Fed's role as the global supplier of liquidity.
US Treasuries (UST) had a volatile trading month in December and ended the periodwith the 5- and 10-year UST yields 17 basis points (bps) and 0.7bps higher compared to November.
Asia Pacific ex-Japan markets did better than other emerging markets, posting a negative return of 2.1% in USD terms as compared to the latter which returned -4.6% in USD terms as it was dragged down by Russia.
We expect oil prices to rebound and for the time being, we will stick with our call for Brent to rebound to $72 by end-June 2015, although $65 is a more plausible goal.
Asia credit recovered strongly in 2014. Long duration bonds gained as the intermediates and long-end US Treasury (UST) yields fell in response to disappointing growth outcomes elsewhere in the world even as the shortend of the curve began adjusting to rate hike expectation in the US.
It is that time of year again when those in the investment business (unfairly referred to as the ‘chattering class’) share their prognostications on the path of asset classes for 2015.
Clearly, oil prices have fallen further than nearly everyone anticipated. When our Global Investment Committee met in December, Brent was trading at $66.
The overall CNH bond market gained 3.02% in local terms in 2014. Both sovereigns and credits delivered positive returns of 2.6% and 3.14%, respectively.
Through the careful examination of historical data, it is possible to empirically affirm the existence of several anomalies in the stock market, even though there is not always a clear theory or explanation as to why they exist.